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Ranking the 2026 Grammy Album of the Year Nominees From Least to Most Likely to Win
Bunny is unquestionably one of the top contenders in the category. But you can make a strong case for at least two other albums. And, of course, all eight of the nominated albums are in play. There are often upsets and surprises at awards shows. No matter who wins, we’ll see a first-time winner in the category. For the first time in six years, no past album of the year winners are in the running.
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Grammy voters at this stage are just mulling their choices. Final-round voting runs from Dec. 12 to Jan. 5. The 58th annual Grammy Awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, Feb. 1 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Here are the eight nominees for album of the year, ranked from least to most likely to win:
8. Tyler, The Creator, CHROMAKOPIA
Nominated participants: Tyler, The Creator, producer; NealHPogue, Tyler Okonma & Vic Wainstein, engineers/mixers; Tyler Okonma, songwriter; Mike Bozzi, mastering engineer
Notes: This is Tyler’s first album of the year nod, following a pair of wins for best rap album. This is one of three rap albums nominated in the top category – the first time that has happened in Grammy history – but probably the least likely of the three to win. If a voter really wants a rap album to win, it’s hard to imagine them voting for this album.
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7. Clipse, Pusha T & Malice, Let God Sort Em Out
Nominated participants: Pharrell Williams, featured artist; Pharrell Williams, producer; Mike Larson, Manny Marroquin, Rob Ulsh & Pharrell Williams, engineers/mixers; Gene Elliott Thornton Jr., Terrence Thornton & Pharrell Williams, songwriters; Zach Pereyra, mastering engineer
Notes: Clipse chose to include both members’ names in their artist credit, so voters will be reminded who is in Clipse at the point of voting. Let God Sort Em Out was the duo’s first studio album in nearly 16 years, and proves that rap is not just a young man’s game – Pusha T is 48; Malice is 53.
Pharrell Williams is nominated as a featured artist, producer, engineer/mixer and songwriter (though if this album wins, he’ll receive just one Grammy in this category). Williams is a 13-time Grammy winner, so his name carries some weight.
But there’s another rap album that has a better chance of winning. Again, if a voter has a strong interest in seeing a rap album win, are they likely to vote for this?
6. Justin Bieber, Swag
Nominated participants: Eddie Benjamin, Justin Bieber, Daniel Chetrit, Dijon, Carter Lang & Dylan Wiggins, producers; Felix Byrne & Josh Gudwin, engineers/mixers; Eddie Benjamin, Justin Bieber, Daniel Chetrit, Dijon Duenas, Tobias Jesso Jr., Carter Lang, Jackson Lee Morgan & Dylan Wiggins, songwriters; Dale Becker, mastering engineer
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Notes: This is Bieber’s third album of the year nod. He has made an impressive transition from the teenybopper who sang “Baby” and other bubblegum hits to a highly credible artist respected by both pop and R&B fans. He’s nominated this year for both best pop solo performance for “Daisies” and best R&B performance for “Yukon.” Want to know the last artist to be nominated in both of those categories in the same year? It was Bieber, four years ago, for “Anyone” and “Peaches,” respectively. And he shared the “Peaches” nod with two highly credible featured artists – Daniel Caesar and GIVĒON. The R&B nod for “Yukon” is entirely his.
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Dijon, who co-produced four songs on the album, is nominated for producer of the year, non-classical. Tobias Jesso Jr., who cowrote 10 of the album’s songs, is nominated for songwriter of the year, non-classical, a category in which he won in 2023.
Still, winning album of the year seems a reach at this point. But with every year and nomination under Bieber’s belt, that outcome will seem more likely.
5. Sabrina Carpenter, Man's Best Friend
Nominated participants: Jack Antonoff, Sabrina Carpenter & John Ryan, producers; Zem Audu, Jack Antonoff, Bryce Bordone, Jozef Caldwell, Serban Ghenea, Jeff Gunnell, David Hart, Mikey Freedom Hart, Sean Hutchinson, Oli Jacobs, Jack Manning, Joey Miller, Michael Riddleberger, John Ryan, Laura Sisk & Evan Smith, engineers/mixers; Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff, Sabrina Carpenter & John Ryan, songwriters; Nathan Dantzler & Ruairi O’Flaherty, mastering engineers
Notes: This is the second year in a row that Carpenter has been nominated for album, record and song of the year. This year, she also received a nod for best music video. (Voters last year somehow failed to nominate “Please Please Please” in that category, though it was entered.)
Amy Allen, who cowrote every song on Man’s Best Friend, is nominated for songwriter of the year, non-classical, a category in which she won earlier this year.
Who could resist Carpenter’s musical persona, which is fun, sexy and playful? But there’s another pop album in the running with a stronger chance of winning; another pop artist who is more overdue for a win in this category than Carpenter is.
4. Leon Thomas, MUTT
Nominated participants: Freaky Rob, Peter Lee Johnson, D. Phelps & Leon Thomas, producers; Jean-Marie Horvat, engineer/mixer; Lazaro Andres Camejo, Freaky Rob, Peter Lee Johnson, D. Phelps & Leon Thomas, songwriters; Dave Kutch, mastering engineer
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Notes: This is the only non-rap R&B album in the running. The title track, a throwback to 1970s soul, is one of the year’s most appealing hits. It was released in the previous eligibility year, so it wasn’t eligible for a record of the year nod. An alternate version, “Mutt (Live from NPR’s Tiny Desk),” was entered, though alternate versions are almost never nominated in the marquee categories. (It is, however, nominated for best R&B performance.) Thomas also has respect within the industry for his work as a musician, writer and producer — including on prior AOTY contenders the likes of SZA and Ariana Grande.
But, realistically, Thomas’ win was surpassing expectations to land an album of the year nomination. It’s hard to see MUTT actually winning the award.
3. Lady Gaga, MAYHEM
Nominated participants: Cirkut, Lady Gaga, Gesaffelstein & Andrew Watt, producers; Bryce Bordone, Serban Ghenea & Paul LaMalfa, engineers/mixers; Lady Gaga, Mike Lévy, Michael Polansky, Henry Walter & Andrew Watt, songwriters; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
Notes: Gaga has never won in a Big Four category (album, record and song of the year, plus best new artist). Even Beyoncé, prior to her album of the year win earlier this year for Cowboy Carter, had won song of the year for “Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It).”
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Cirkut, who co-produced all but two tracks on MAYHEM, is nominated for producer of the year, non-classical.
Gaga has gone 0-4 in album of the year, though one of those nominations was for Love for Sale, her second collab with Tony Bennett. That nomination probably had more to do with the fact that voters knew this would their last chance to honor Bennett than it did with Gaga (though Gaga’s versatility and range are always deserving of recognition). So Gaga is not quite as overdue for an album of the year win as another artist who has gone 0-4 in the category. (Read on.)
2. Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Nominated participants: Big Jay, La Paciencia, MAG & Tainy, producers; Antonio Caraballo, Josh Gudwin, Luis Amed Irizarry & Roberto José Rosado Torres, engineers/mixers; Marco Daniel Borrero, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, Marcos Efrain Masis, Jay Anthony Nuñez & Roberto José Rosado Torres, songwriters; Colin Leonard, mastering engineer
Notes: Leila Cobo, Billboard’s chief content officer, Latin/Español, made the case for Bunny’s album beautifully in her story announcing the Latin Grammy winners: “Bad Bunny, the big favorite, walked away with the all-important album of the year win for his acclaimed DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, the collection that took him back to his Puerto Rican roots, spurred a love fest with his island and its traditions, spawned his record-breaking residency and ultimately paved the road for his upcoming Super Bowl LX halftime show performance.”
The Recording Academy announced on Nov. 3 that it had extended invitations to all voting members of the Latin Recording Academy to join their membership as well. Many took them up on the offer. That infusion of new voters could help Bunny win album of the year on his second try.
Also, the racist backlash that followed the announcement that Bunny was set to headline the Super Bowl halftime show could work in his favor in Grammy voting, as voters seek to show that they have his back.
There’s a precedent for Grammy voters taking the political climate into account in their voting. The Chicks, then known as Dixie Chicks, swept the Grammys in 2007 – including album, record and song of the year – at least in part because voters were signaling that they supported the group in their war of words with then-President George W. Bush.
The trio experienced a severe backlash after lead singer Natalie Maines harshly criticized Bush during a 2003 concert in London. Her comment (“Just so you know, we’re ashamed the president of the United States is from Texas”) led to country radio boycotts and a shutout for the group in the 2006 CMA Awards nominations. The Chicks’ sweep of all five of their Grammy nominations was widely seen as Recording Academy members using their votes to support the band and take a stand against what we can now see was an early example of cancel culture. From the Grammy stage, Maines said: “I think people are using their freedom of speech with all these awards. We get the message.”
If Bunny wins, he’ll become just the second artist to win in the same year that he or she performed at the Super Bowl halftime show. If I gave you 30 guesses to name the first performer to do this, you probably still wouldn’t get it, so I’ll just tell you: Tony Bennett participated in the multi-artist halftime show in January 1995, a little more than one month before he won album of the year for MTV Unplugged.
Whether he wins or just misses this year, Bunny is getting closer to winning the top award. In 2023, when he was first nominated in this category for Un Verano Sin Ti, Bunny was thought to be a bit further back in the pack. Harry Styles’ Harry’s House won the award; Beyoncé’s Renaissance is assumed to have come in second; and Bunny’s album probably fought it out for third place with Adele’s 30 and Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers.
1. Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Nominated participants: Jack Antonoff & Sounwave, producers; Jack Antonoff, Ray Charles Brown Jr., Jozef Caldwell, Oli Jacobs, Jack Manning, Dani Perez, Laura Sisk & Johnathan Turner, engineers/mixers; Jack Antonoff, Matthew Bernard, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Ink, Kendrick Lamar & Mark Anthony Spears, songwriters; Ruairi O’Flaherty, mastering engineer
Notes: No rap or hip-hop album has won album of the year since Outkast’s Speakerboxxx/The Love Below in 2004. And no male solo rapper has ever won it. (The only other hip-hop winner was Lauryn Hill’s The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill in 1999.) So many think it’s past time for a rap album to win again.
Also, this is Lamar’s fifth nomination as a lead solo artist in this category. It’s hard to see voters denying him the prize again, especially since the Recording Academy announced (in that same Nov. 3 press release) that it has added approximately 2,900 new voting members in the past year, even more than the 2,000 who joined last year. The academy broke it down: 60% of the new members are people of color, 49% are age 39 and under and 30% identify as women. The academy added the stunning statistic that fully 73% of the current Grammy voting body has joined since the academy introduced its new membership model in June 2019.
The fact that Lamar won both record and song of the year earlier this year for “Not Like Us,” and may well win in both categories again on Feb. 1 for “luther,” his smash collab with SZA, may serve to inoculate Grammy voters from the charge that they’re continually passing over the rapper. But album of the year is the Grammys’ top award, by broad consensus and by the way the award is positioned on the annual telecast.
Beyoncé’s fans made a big deal out of her having gone 0-4 in the category before she finally won with Cowboy Carter. If he loses again, Lamar will have gone 0-5 in the category as a lead artist. (He was also nominated for album of the year for the Black Panther soundtrack, on which he was credited as a featured artist.)
The fact that two other rap albums are nominated for album of the year could hurt Lamar’s chances. It’s arguable that the presence of Jay-Z’s 4:44 in the category at the 2018 ceremony took just enough votes away from Lamar’s Pulitzer Prize-winning DAMN. to cause him to lose. (The award went to Bruno Mars’ 24K Magic).
But Outkast proved that a rap album can win even when competing with another rap album. Speakerboxxx/The Love Below won, even though Missy Elliott’s Under Construction was also nominated that same year. And voters who really want to see a rap album win probably know which rap album has the best chance of winning.
Sounwave, who co-produced every track on GNX, is nominated for producer of the year, non-classical. That may also be a good sign for Lamar’s chances.
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